Mortgage and Refinance Rates Today, October 21 | Rising rates

Today’s Mortgage and Refinance Rates

Average mortgage rates remained stable yesterday. And it was a pleasant surprise. Because a rise had seemed likely earlier in the day. Of course, these rates remain extraordinarily low by historical standards.

Once again, today, mortgage rates are expected to rise. But remember what happened yesterday: these predictions are not an exact science.

Find and lock in a low rate (January 27, 2022)

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Program Mortgage rate APR* Change
30-year fixed conventional 3.247% 3.266% -0.01%
15-year fixed conventional 2.598% 2.628% Unchanged
20-year fixed conventional 3.043% 3.08% Unchanged
10-year fixed conventional 2.521% 2.583% -0.01%
30-year fixed FHA 3.232% 3.994% Unchanged
15-year fixed FHA 2.566% 3.21% -0.02%
5/1 ARM FHA 2.656% 3.184% -0.01%
30-year fixed PV 3.101% 3.294% +0.04%
15-year fixed VA 2.789% 3.139% -0.03%
5/1 ARM GO 2.507% 2.405% -0.02%
Pricing is provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate may be different. Click here for a personalized quote. See our rate assumptions here.
Find and lock in a low rate (January 27, 2022)

COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest information on the impact of the coronavirus on your home loan, Click here.

Should you lock in a mortgage rate today?

I think significant mortgage rate cuts are unlikely at this time. But further increases in the days and weeks ahead seem likely.

So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

  • LOCK if closing seven days
  • LOCK if closing 15 days
  • LOCK if closing 30 days
  • LOCK if closing 45 days
  • LOCK if closing 60 days

However, I do not claim perfect foresight. And your personal analysis might turn out to be as good as mine, if not better. You can therefore choose to be guided by your instincts and personal risk tolerance.

Market Data Affecting Today’s Mortgage Rates

Here is an overview of the situation this morning around 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared to around the same time yesterday, was:

  • the yield on 10-year treasury bills rose slightly to 1.66% from 1.64%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular treasury yields
  • Main stock indices were mostly weaker shortly after opening. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, which lowers bond prices and raises yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are weaker. But it’s an imperfect relationship
  • Oil prices Pink at $82.60 instead of $81.88 per barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a big role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
  • gold price slightly higher at $1,782 from $1,781 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold goes up, and worse when gold goes down. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates down
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed Indexwent from 67 to 69 (last night is near) out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “greedy” investors cause bond prices to fall (and interest rates to rise) when they leave the bond market and turn to equities, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

*A change of less than $20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. We therefore only consider significant differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Market and rate warnings

Prior to the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess of what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But this is no longer the case. We are still making daily calls. And are usually right. But our accuracy record won’t reach its former high levels until things stabilize.

So use the markets only as an indication. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be relied upon. But, with this caveat, mortgage rates now look likely to rise. But be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Find and lock in a low rate (January 27, 2022)

Important Notes About Today’s Mortgage Rates

Here are some things you should know:

  1. Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it is struggling. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
  2. Only “top tier” borrowers (with great credit scores, large down payments, and very sound finances) get the ultra-low mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
  3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements – although they all generally follow the larger trend over time
  4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rates unchanged
  5. Refinance rates are generally close to purchase rates. And a recent regulatory change has narrowed a gap that used to exist

So there’s a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the hours, days, weeks or months to come.

Are mortgage and refinance rates going up or down?

Today And so on

Thank goodness for the interest-free times for mortgage rates. And the last two days have not been exciting.

Hope it lasts. Because these rates remain very close to their five-month high. And we don’t want them to go any higher until they absolutely have to.

But they probably will. And we’ll be lucky if they stay where they are until the next big move trigger happens on November 3. This is when the Federal Reserve is likely to announce that it will end its program from mid-November which has kept mortgage rates artificially low for 18 months.

Chances are that mortgage rates will go up then. Of course, in the meantime, they could rise or fall in response to economic reports and relevant news. But I suspect the best we can hope for is a distinct lack of excitement.

For more information on the current influences on mortgage rates, read last Saturday’s bulletin weekend edition of these daily reports.

Recently — Updated today

For much of 2020, the general trend in mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new all-time weekly low was set 16 times last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on January 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed rate mortgages. But then the trend reversed and rates rose moderately.

However, beginning in April, these increases were mostly replaced by declines, albeit generally small. More recently, we’ve had a few months where those rates barely budged. But, unfortunately, since the beginning of September, we have mainly seen increases.

Freddie’s 21st of October the report puts that weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 3.09% (with 0.7 fees and points), at the top compared to 3.05% the previous week.

Expert Mortgage Rate Forecasts

Longer term, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates. .

And here are their current rate forecasts for the last quarter of 2021 (Q4/21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1/22, Q2/22 and Q3/22).

The figures in the table below are for 30-year fixed rate mortgages. Fannie’s and Freddie’s were released on October 15 and the MBAs on October 18.

Forecaster Q4/21 Q1/22 Q2/22 Q3/22
Fannie Mae 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.3%
Freddie Mac 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6%
MBA 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.7%

However, given so much unknowable, the current forecast set may be even more speculative than usual.

All of these forecasts expect at least slightly higher mortgage rates fairly soon.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they’re limiting their offerings to the most vanilla-scented mortgages and refinances.

But others remain brave. And you can always find the refinance, investment mortgage or jumbo loan you want. You just need to shop more widely.

But, of course, you should do a lot of comparison shopping, no matter what type of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said:

Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not seem like much, but saving even a quarter point of interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the term of your loan.

Check your new rate (January 27, 2022)

Mortgage Rate Methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners every day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average a range of prices, it gives you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we average rates for the same types of loans. For example, fixed FHA with fixed FHA. The end result is a good overview of daily rates and how they change over time.


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